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Amazon to Overtake Walmart by 2022

Amazon is set to become the largest retailer in the United States. While Walmart is currently the largest retailer, its reign may end in 2022, at which time market research firm Packaged Facts forecasts that Amazon will surpass Walmart, based on the expectation that Amazon sales will continue to grow at a much faster rate.

Packaged Facts analyzed the e-commerce giant’s activities in grocery, pet products, and financial services. Amazon already has an enormous impact on e-commerce sales, benefitting from its creation of an endless online aisle with products at competitive prices. The survey estimates that Amazon’s U.S. gross merchandise sales will comprise 43% of U.S. e-commerce sales in 2019, up from 28% in 2015. By 2022, "we forecast that Amazon will contribute almost half of U.S. e-commerce sales,” says David Sprinkle, research director for Packaged Facts.

Despite Amazon’s continued growth, Walmart does have advantages Amazon presently cannot match, even when accounting for Amazon’s innovative incorporation of natural supermarket chain Whole Foods in 2017 or its partnership with department store retail chain Kohl’s. Most notably, Walmart’s in-store services strongly differentiate it from online competitors such as Amazon, which naturally cannot provide services, as well as from its brick-and-mortar competitors, many of which do not offer the same breadth of offerings or cannot match Walmart’s pricing. These services therefore not only produce revenue but also significantly drive traffic, which is even more vital at a time when brick-and-mortar retailers of all shapes and sizes seek to revitalize in-store traffic.


The survey data reveals that more than 20% of Walmart purchasers use in-store services (including purchasing/using a range of financial services, on-site pharmacy, and optical and photo processing). In addition, Walmart is the click-and-collect king. Among survey respondent click-and-collectors, 43% identified Walmart as the pickup location for their last click-and-collect order, three times the percentage of those who cited runner-up Target.


This report provides insight into four parts:

The Amazon Landscape – Focuses on Amazon consumer usage and engagement trends and related consumer usage and engagement strategies, as well as Amazon’s competitive positioning. The section also focuses on Amazon products and services engagement over time, the analysis includes portraits of the Amazon shopper, the Amazon media user, and the Amazon Prime member; as well as Amazon’s strategies to broaden its reach into U.S. homes and wallets.


Amazon Category Analysis: Grocery - Focuses on online grocery purchasing trends over time to assess purchase channel (online and in-store) shifts and preferences according to major retailer and retailer channel, and it considers Amazon’s foray into the online grocery market. The analysis is devoted to the role Amazon plays in shaping grocery trends, with attention to Amazon cross-usage among major food retailers over time; consumer usage of Amazon services such as Amazon Fresh, Subscribe & Save, Prime Pantry, and Prime Now; and trends and strategies related to Whole Foods and physical store expansion.

Amazon Category Analysis: Pet Products and Supplies - Focuses on consumer pet products purchasing trends over time to assess purchase channel (online, in-store, and multi-channel) shifts and preferences according to major retailer and retailer channels. The analysis is devoted to the role Amazon plays in shaping these trends, cross-usage of Amazon by customers of other major pet product retailers, and Amazon’s influence on online, in-store and multi-channel purchasing preferences.


Amazon Category Analysis: Financial Services - Focuses on Amazon's financial services and payments consumer usage and engagement trends and related consumer usage and engagement strategies, as well as Amazon’s competitive positioning over time. It also assesses future opportunities and ramifications related to its current financial services and payments products as well as those in development.


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